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Results will likely vary by population and geography but there's a good chance claims are lower all-in for many groups, especially younger ones away from big cities. For 2-3 months all steps are being made to clear out non-essential care. Some unnecessary back surgeries will never show up in claims now, a sort of forced 2nd opinion. ER visits have dropped as well. Hospitalization rates for Corona tend to be much higher for >65. CDC site shows hospitalizations per 100,000 for end of March at under 2-7 for 18-64 but these numbers change each week. CDC data here. Social distancing, hand washing, masks, etc are showing their fruits. 

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Milliman has released a new paper, as of 4/23, and it estimates a reduction of medical costs of $75B+, which is 2%+ of medical care spending.

Artemis Health has a link to varied scenarios, which are highly sensitive to inputs (they produce 35x variation depending on what you assume for hosp rate, cost, etc.). It doesn't include any asymptomatic cases. 

On March 26th, Willis Towers Watson estimated COVID costs increases of up to 7% (in excess of market trends). 

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This tool shows +/- 10% changes in most scenarios, and includes foregone care, covid scenarios, and modeling for 2nd wave. It's from a group that grew out of MIT. Last updated from key estimates on costs in late March.

https://covid-cashflow.benefitsscience.com/

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